09/08/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When confronted with a media inquiry regarding a team member who is absent due to holdout, injury or suspension, NFL coaches are fond of saying they'd rather talk about the "players that are here."

It's similar to the line I use on my wife when she asks me where all the Tastycakes have gone. "I'd prefer to talk about the Butterscotch Krimpets that are still here."

It's a convenient issue-ducking mechanism for those who would prefer not to engage in the full concept of reality. To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, and every NFL holdout, injury or suspension does in fact have an impact on the "players that are here."

The coaches may abide by a self-imposed gag order when it comes to sensitive issues concerning personnel, and commissioner Roger Goodell might exalt only the good things and virtuous people of the NFL when he makes his public remarks during the league's kickoff weekend, but we're under no such obligation.

While we revel in watching the Mannings and Bradys and Chris Johnsons perform, let's remember that San Diego Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson won't be in an NFL stadium this week. The 2009 Pro Bowler will be serving the first week of a three-game suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy. Jackson has been arrested for DUI twice since entering the NFL in 2005, and was so humbled by that second arrest that he got in his car this past January, with a suspended license and expired registration, turned his music up loud and began the drive over to Qualcomm Stadium for the Chargers' playoff game against the Jets. He was arrested again.

"You know, I've done everything off the field right except two bad choices," Jackson complained to NFL Network last month. "I just want the legacy and the thought of Vincent Jackson off the field to be more positive."

Maybe as he starts the long-awaited tour to clear his name, Jackson can bring along Houston Texans linebacker Brian Cushing for the ride. (Cushing can drive.) The NFL's Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2009, Cushing was suspended for four games in May after testing positive for hcG, a banned substance commonly used to restart testosterone production after a steroid cycle. Instead of taking his medicine like a man (on the issue of taking medicine used to enhance female fertility), Cushing appealed the ruling and implausibly insisted the substance ended up in his body due to "overtraining." His appeal was denied by the league, and it's a good thing for Cushing that you can't be suspended for insulting peoples' intelligence, otherwise he might be looking at a year-long ban.

Two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is getting the same month off as Cushing, after helping bring Milledgeville, GA and devil t-shirts into the public consciousness this past spring. Roethlisberger, you might remember, was accused of raping a 20-year-old in a bar bathroom. The man to whom Roethlisbeger threw the most famous pass of his career, Santonio Holmes, will have an extended summer as well. The MVP of Super Bowl XLIII, who previously had a marijuana arrest and some domestic malfeasance on his resume', will lose the first four games of his New York Jets career to a separate violation of the league's substance abuse policy.

Fourteen players will begin the 2010 season serving suspensions, including the four decent-sized NFL stars listed above. That's not quite an epidemic in a league where 1,440 players will be active in Week 1, but it is evidence that the NFL has a slow-simmering image problem that it must continue to be aggressive about reversing.

Players are going to get in trouble, but the offseason preceding 2010 has been an especially disappointing one for a league that was supposed to have gone all no-nonsense during the Goodell era. Goodell's message may be getting through to some, but the high concentration of big stars in trouble as another NFL season begins tells us there's some pretty important static on the line.

And it's a situation that everyone involved - from the commissioner, to the owners, to the players, to the coaches who like to deflect the questions they're uncomfortable answering - had better continue to confront.

The Sportsbook Betting Lines's updated NFL Power Poll, which ranks all 32 league teams, can be found at:

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page= nfl/misc/nfl-poll.htm

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page= fantasy/index.aspx

1. Tennessee (vs. Oakland) - Raiders are going to be a tough out for most of 2010, but Jason Campbell's debut in a road venue is not the time to count on them.

2. N.Y. Giants (vs. Carolina) - Panthers looked horrible in the preseason, and Giants will be determined to exact revenge for last year's 41-9 embarrassment.

3. Chicago (vs. Detroit) - These two teams are not far apart in terms of talent, but it's hard to envision the young Lions snapping their 20-game road losing streak here.

I was 176-95 (.649) in my picks during the 2009 season, and also finished on the plus-side at 140-127-4 (.524) against the spread. It is here that I am contractually obligated to point out that Sportsbook Betting Lines Associate NFL Editor Scott Garbarini was the company-wide winner in TSN's "Pigskin Prognosticators" last year, so you should bet your mortgage on his 2010 picks, not mine.

Storylines: Saints begin the first title defense in their 43-year history... Rematch of the 2009 NFC Championship, won by the Saints, 31-28 (OT)...Vikings quarterback Brett Favre, who needs three touchdown passes to reach 500 for his career, begins his 20th NFL season...Vikings wide receiver Sidney Rice (hip) out until at least November, and Saints safety Darren Sharper (knee) also shelved for at least the first six games...Minnesota wideout Percy Harvin (migraines) expected to play, and fellow WR Greg Camarillo (ex-Dolphins) slated to make his formal debut with the team...Saints cornerback Tracy Porter (knee) and Jonathan Vilma (groin) both question marks...Minnesota will be short-handed at cornerback with rookie Chris Cook (knee) on the shelf and Cedric Griffin (knee) a question mark after missing the preseason...CB Lito Sheppard expected to make his debut for Minnesota...Saints newcomers include end Alex Brown (ex- Bears), linebacker Danny Clark (ex-Giants) and first-round rookie cornerback Patrick Robinson (Florida State)...Center John Sullivan (calf) considered questionable for the Vikings.

Fast Fact: Reigning Super Bowl champions have won the next year's regular season opener 10 straight times, with the '99 Denver Broncos serving as the last Super Bowl champ to begin the following year with a loss.

Prediction: Saints may battle Super Bowl hangover at some point in 2010, but opener will be an extension of 2009 greatness. Saints 33, Vikings 24.

Storylines: Bills start the Chan Gailey era...New-look Dolphins to feature star wide receiver Brandon Marshall (ex-Broncos) and linebacker Karlos Dansby (ex- Cardinals) for the first time in a meaningful contest...First-round running back C.J. Spiller (Clemson) makes his formal debut in a Bills uniform...Trent Edwards to start at QB for Buffalo after winning preseason competition over Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm...Miami defense now under the tutelage of coordinator Mike Nolan...Buffalo shifting to a 3-4 defense under new coordinator George Edwards...Dolphins are 0-5 in Buffalo since last winning there in 2003, though they do own a road win against Buffalo in Toronto over that span...Buffalo running backs Fred Jackson (hand) and Marshawn Lynch (ankle) both expected to be available vs. Miami...Dolphins first-round defensive tackle Jared Odrick (Penn State) expected to start...Miami signed ex- Buccaneers return man Clifton Smith earlier this week...Bills safety Jairus Byrd (groin surgery) expected to play.

Fast Fact: Buffalo's Chan Gailey is 1-0 against the Dolphins as a head coach, with the win coming for his Cowboys team on Thanksgiving Day 1999.

Prediction: Dolphins are the AFC team not enough people are talking about, and will ride defense to a Week 1 win. Dolphins 17, Bills 12.

Storylines: Offseason free agent acquisition and defensive end Julius Peppers (ex-Panthers) wears a Bears uniform in meaningful play for the first time... First-round defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska) and running back Jahvid Best (Cal) make their formal debuts in a Lions uniform...Bears offense under guidance of new coordinator (and former Lions OC) Mike Martz for the first time...Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher to be back on the field after missing the final 15 games of 2009 with a broken wrist...Chicago one of two teams to finish without a win in the 2010 preseason (Indianapolis)...Lions are 0-20 on the road since winning in Chicago on Oct. 28, 2007...Wide receiver Nate Burleson (ex-Seahawks), end Kyle Vanden Bosch (ex-Titans) and cornerback Chris Houston (ex-Falcons) among those making their debuts with the Lions...Chicago head coach Lovie Smith is serving as the team's defensive coordinator in 2010...Bears beat Lions last season by scores of 48-24 and 37-23.

Fast Fact: Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is 3-0 in career home openers, beating the Steelers (17-14), Chargers (39-38) and Raiders (23-20) over the last three seasons.

Prediction: All of Chicago knows there's no hope if the Bears can't beat the Lions at home in Week 1. Bears 27, Lions 24.

Storylines: Colts play first meaningful game since Super Bowl loss to Saints last February...Colts are 15-1 all-time against the Texans, with the only loss a 27-24 result at Reliant Stadium in 2006...Former undrafted free agent Arian Foster starts at running back for the Texans...Houston tight end Owen Daniels (knee) makes formal return after missing the second half of last year due to injury...First-round cornerback Kareem Jackson (Alabama) of the Texans and pass rusher Jerry Hughes (TCU) of the Colts tabbed to make their formal NFL debuts...Colts one of two teams to finish without a win in the 2010 preseason (Chicago)...New offensive coordinators Rick Dennison (Texans) and Clyde Christensen (Colts) work the first meaningful game in their new roles...Neil Rackers takes over kicking duties for long-time Texans specialist Kris Brown...Wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez returns to the field for Indy after missing the final 15 games of last season with a knee injury...Colts beat Texans by scores of 20-17 and 35-27 last season.

Fast Fact: The Colts have held Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson out of the end zone in each of their last three meetings against the All-Pro.

Prediction: Colts aren't about to fall behind their primary AFC South competition at this stage of the year. Colts 23, Texans 20.

Storylines: First-round Broncos rookie QB Tim Tebow, a backup to starter Kyle Orton, could make his NFL debut just down the road from his alma mater, the University of Florida...Meeting pits teams that collapsed in '09, with the Broncos going 2-8 in the final 10 games and the Jaguars losing their last four contests...Denver running back Knowshon Moreno (hamstring) a question mark for Sunday, and Jags counterpart Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) likely to play...First- round Broncos rookie wideout Demaryius Thomas (Georgia Tech) considered a question mark to make his NFL debut after missing time with a foot injury in the preseason...Nose tackle Jamal Williams (ex-Chargers) among the other prominent new Broncos...Jaguars first-round rookie DT Tyson Alualu (Cal) expected to be in the lineup, along with free agent end Aaron Kampman (ex- Packers) and linebacker Kirk Morrison (ex-Raiders)...Broncos right tackle Ryan Harris (ankle) expected to be out...Don Martindale begins his first season as Denver's defensive coordinator.

Fast Fact: Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow is 3-1 in his career at EverBank Field, including wins over Georgia there in 2009 (41-17) and 2008 (49-10).

Prediction: Tebow saga will end up as a footnote, as the team that didn't draft him is a little further along at this stage than the one that did. Jaguars 19, Broncos 14.

Storylines: Battle of reigning AFC division winners who fizzled in the 2009 playoffs...Terrell Owens and Adam "Pacman" Jones among those making formal debuts with the Bengals...New England guard Logan Mankins remains embroiled in a contract dispute with the team and will not play...Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss needs two touchdown catches to become the second player in NFL history to reach 150 for his career (Jerry Rice)...New England wideout Wes Welker expected to be in lineup slightly more than eight months after suffering a major knee injury...Bengals wideout Chad Ochocinco is 48 yards shy of 10,000 for his career, and needs two touchdown catches to break Carl Pickens' franchise record (63) in that category...First-round tight end Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma) of the Bengals and cornerback Devin McCourty (Rutgers) of the Patriots slated to make formal debuts...Ex-Chiefs safety Jarrad Page could make debut with New England after being acquired in a trade last week...Former Jet Mike Nugent takes over at kicker for departed Bengal Shayne Graham.

Prediction: Brutal Cincinnati schedule starts out on a sour note, as New England flexes its offensive muscles. Patriots 26, Bengals 16.

Storylines: Meaningful NFL opener at New Meadowlands Stadium...Giants try to exact revenge for 41-9 home loss to Panthers on Dec. 27 of last year...Carolina quarterback Matt Moore makes an opening day start for the first time...Ahmad Bradshaw expected to start at running back for the Giants ahead of Brandon Jacobs...Giants first-round rookie defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul (South Florida) slated to make his formal NFL debut...Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith will play after missing the preseason with a broken arm, and running back Jonathan Stewart (Achilles') also likely to be in uniform...Safety Antrel Rolle (ex-Cardinals) and linebacker Keith Bulluck (ex-Titans) part of a new-look Giants defense led by first-year coordinator Perry Fewell (ex-Bills)...Giants safety Kenny Phillips (knee) expected to return after missing the final 14 games of last year with a career-threatening injury...Cornerbacks Aaron Ross (foot) and cornerback Corey Webster (groin) are question marks for the Giants.

Fast Fact: In two career head-to-head meetings, Giants wide receiver Steve Smith leads Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith in catches (10-8), trails Carolina's Smith in receiving yards (107-94), and the two are tied in touchdowns (1) and wins (1).

Prediction: Giants will get their revenge for 41-9, but aren't going to run away from a well-coached Panthers team. Giants 21, Panthers 19.

Storylines: Steelers look to extend their Week 1 winning streak to eight consecutive games...Pittsburgh has also won seven straight home openers... Quarterback Dennis Dixon, subbing for the suspended Ben Roethlisberger and injured Byron Leftwich (knee), makes his second career NFL start...Safety Troy Polamalu to make first appearance in Steelers lineup since last Nov. 15th... Falcons attempting to build on the first back-to-back winning seasons in team history...Atlanta's Tony Gonzalez needs one reception to become the first tight end in NFL history to reach 1,000 for his career...Pittsburgh wide receiver Hines Ward is five receptions shy of becoming the 12th NFL player with 900 career receptions...Cornerback Dunta Robinson (ex-Texans) wears an Atlanta uniform for the first time in a meaningful game...First-round rookie center Maurkice Pouncey (Florida) of the Steelers and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri) of the Falcons slated to make their formal NFL debuts.

Fast Fact: The Falcons are 0-5-1 in Pittsburgh all-time, including a 34-34 tie in their last trip to Heinz Field in 2002.

Prediction: If Matt Ryan and the Falcons are going to take a step forward, they have to find a way to beat Dennis Dixon and a depleted Steelers team. Falcons 20, Steelers 17.

Storylines: Ex-Panthers QB Jake Delhomme, obtained by Cleveland during the free agency period, makes his first start in a Browns uniform...Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman (thumb) expected back in the lineup after missing the latter stages of the preseason...Cleveland won final four games of '09 and will be gunning for first five-game win streak since 1994...Buccaneers tight end Kellen Winslow, the No. 6 overall pick of the Browns in the 2004 NFL Draft, faces his former team for the first time since being traded to Tampa Bay in Feb. 2009...Buccaneers cornerback Aqib Talib serving a one-game suspension for violating the NFL personal conduct policy...First-round rookie defensive tackle Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma) of the Buccaneers and cornerback Joe Haden (Florida) of the Browns slated to make their meaningful debuts...Former Patriot Ben Watson to make first start at tight end for Cleveland...Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris is serving as the team's defensive coordinator in 2010...Browns defensive lineman Shaun Rogers (leg) expected to play after missing the preseason.

Fast Fact: Browns quarterback Jake Delhomme is 9-2 against the Buccaneers in his career as a starter, including 5-1 in games played at Tampa Bay.

Prediction: Watch out for the Browns, who saw the light come on last December and finally have a legitimate quarterback. Browns 20, Buccaneers 10.

Storylines: Quarterback Jason Campbell expected to make his first start in a Raiders uniform after being traded from the Redskins in April...Titans were 8-2 after an 0-6 start last year...Oakland has lost seven straight season-openers since a home win over the Seahawks to start the 2002 season...Titans running back Chris Johnson tries to extend his streak of 100-yard games to 12, which would be the second-longest streak in NFL history (Barry Sanders, 14)...Oakland running back Michael Bush (broken thumb) regarded as questionable after missing time in the preseason...Raiders first-round rookie middle linebacker Rolando McClain (Alabama) and Titans defensive end Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech) slated to make their formal NFL debuts...Raiders signed ex-Giants defensive tackle Jay Alford on Wednesday...Hue Jackson begins first year as Raiders offensive coordinator...Kamerion Wimbley (ex-Browns) also slated to make his first start in an Oakland uniform...Wide receiver Chaz Schilens (knee) not expected to play for Raiders.

Fast Fact: The last Raiders coach-quarterback combination to preside over a Week 1 road win was Jon Gruden and Rich Gannon, who led Oakland to a 27-24 win at Kansas City on Sept. 9, 2001.

Prediction: Tough first assignment for Campbell, who won't be able to match the exploits of Johnson and the Titans attack. Titans 24, Raiders 13.

Storylines: Pair of 2009 playoff teams meets at Lincoln Financial Field... Quarterback Kevin Kolb makes his first opening-day start as an Eagle...Kolb is 1-1 as a starter since entering the league in 2007...Including playoffs, the Packers are 0-9 in Philadelphia since last winning there in 1962...Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was 41-of-53 passing (77.4 percent) for 470 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions during the 2010 preseason...Eagles first-round defensive end Brandon Graham (Michigan) expected to start in his formal NFL debut, and second-round rookie safety Nate Allen (South Florida) and linebacker Ernie Sims (ex-Lions) among the other newcomers for the Philadelphia defense...Center Jamaal Jackson (knee) expected to start for Philadelphia, and newly-acquired guard Reggie Wells (ex-Cardinals) could also be in the lineup... Running back Mike Bell (ex-Saints) slated to make formal debut with Philadelphia...Packers Cornerback Al Harris (knee) and safety Atari Bigby (ankle) both beginning season on Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.

Fast Fact: The last Eagles quarterback other than Donovan McNabb to lead the team to a Week 1 win was Rodney Peete, who engineered a 17-14 victory over the Redskins on Sept. 1, 1996.

Prediction: Packers have a dubious history in Philly, but they're simply a better and more mature team than the Eagles at this stage. Packers 31, Eagles 16.

Storylines: Rams rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 Draft, makes his first NFL start...Derek Anderson, who won the starting QB job over the since-departed Matt Leinart in the preseason, makes his first meaningful start as a Cardinal...Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald (knee) expected to be in uniform after missing the bulk of the preseason...Cardinals have won seven in a row over the Rams, and have won in their former home of St. Louis five straight times...First-round rookie defensive tackle Dan Williams (Tennessee) slated to make his debut for the Cardinals...Tim Hightower expected to start at running back for Arizona ahead of Beanie Wells (knee)...Wide receiver Mark Clayton (ex-Ravens) tabbed to make his debut with the Rams after being acquired via trade earlier this week... Perennial Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca (ex-Jets), pass rusher Joey Porter (ex- Dolphins), safety Kerry Rhodes (ex-Jets) and kicker Jay Feely (ex-Jets) among the other prominent new faces for Arizona.

Fast Fact: With a win on Sunday, the Cardinals will lead the series with the Rams (tied 30-30-4), which dates back to 1937, for the first time since 1965.

Prediction: Always dangerous to count on the mediocre Anderson, but he really should be able to pull out a win against the rookie Bradford. Cardinals 25, Rams 19.

Storylines: Pete Carroll era begins in Seattle, as the former USC, Patriots and Jets head man works an NFL sideline for the first time since 1999...Carroll served as 49ers defensive coordinator in 1995-96...49ers were the only team in the league to finish the 2010 preseason undefeated...Niners QB Alex Smith makes his first Week 1 start since 2007...Running back Brian Westbrook (ex-Eagles) slated to make his initial meaningful appearance as a Niner...San Francisco rookie offensive linemen Anthony Davis (Rutgers) and Mike Iupati (Idaho) both expected to be in the starting lineup for formal NFL debuts...Seahawks first- round left tackle Russell Okung (Oklahoma State) is out for Week 1 with a high ankle sprain, though first-round safety Earl Thomas (Texas) is expected to start...Justin Forsett will start at running back for the Seahawks ahead of Julius Jones and newcomer Leon Washington (ex-Jets)...Teams split the 2009 home-and-home, with the 49ers (23-10) and Seahawks (20-17) each winning the home leg.

Fast Fact: In his only meeting as a head coach against the 49ers (Dec. 20, 1998), current Seattle head man Pete Carroll guided the Patriots to a 24-21 victory.

Prediction: Seahawks myriad personnel changes in the last week indicate a team less than sure of its identity. 49ers 28, Seahawks 17.

Storylines: Mike Shanahan era begins in Washington...Quarterback Donovan McNabb (ankle) expected to start his first game as a Redskin...The final two games of McNabb's 12-year career with the Eagles resulted in back-to-back losses to the Cowboys this past January...Playing status of Redskins defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth unknown for Sunday night...Cowboys rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State), who missed the entire preseason with an ankle injury, expected to make his NFL debut...Dallas tackle Marc Colombo (knee) questionable for Sunday night, and guard Kyle Kosier (knee) unlikely to appear...Redskins rookie left tackle Trent Williams (Oklahoma) in line to make his formal NFL debut...Ex-Broncos head coaches Shanahan and Wade Phillips meet for the first time as head men...Linebacker Keith Brooking (shoulder), defensive end Marcus Spears (knee) and safety Gerald Sensabaugh (shoulder) all expected to be available for Dallas...Cowboys swept the 2009 home-and-home against their longtime rival, winning by scores of 7-6 and 17-0.

Fast Fact: Redskins quarterback Donovan McNabb is 10-2 in his last 12 regular season starts against NFC opponents, with both losses coming to the Cowboys.

Prediction: New-look Redskins could have some trouble finding a rhythm early in the year, especially against established opponents like Dallas. Cowboys 20, Redskins 14.

Storylines: Jets make formal debut at New Meadowlands Stadium...Jets head coach Rex Ryan and former Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan faces his one-time employer for the first time...Jets All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis expected back on the field after ending a contract dispute with the team earlier this week...New-look Ravens offense to include Anquan Boldin (ex-Cardinals) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (ex-Bengals) for the first time...Perennial Pro Bowl running back LaDainian Tomlinson makes his formal debut in a Jets uniform...Jets wideout Santonio Holmes begins serving a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy...Outside linebacker Jason Taylor (ex- Dolphins), cornerback Antonio Cromartie (ex-Chargers) and first-round rookie CB Kyle Wilson (Boise State) to make formal Jets debuts...Ravens safety Ed Reed (hip) and Jets pass rusher Calvin Pace (foot) among the players who will be absent...Wide receiver Donte' Stallworth (foot) out for Baltimore, and right tackle Jared Gaither (back) and cornerback Lardarius Webb (knee) both question marks.

Fast Fact: The Ravens lead the all-time series with the Jets, 5-1, including five straight wins since dropping a 19-16 overtime decision at the Meadowlands in 1997.

Prediction: Having Revis back is nice, but he won't be able to do a thing to assist a work-in-progress Jets attack. Ravens 17, Jets 16.

Storylines: New coordinators Charlie Weis (offense) and Romeo Crennel (defense) take over their respective sides of the ball in Kansas City...Rookie running backs Ryan Mathews (Fresno State) of the Chargers and Dexter McCluster (Ole Miss) of the Chiefs make their formal NFL debuts, and ex-Jets Pro Bowl back Thomas Jones also wears a Kansas City uniform for the initial time in meaningful play...Chiefs rookie safety Eric Berry (Tennessee) also patrols the secondary for the first time in a game that counts...San Diego has won five straight over Kansas City, and defeated the Chiefs by scores of 37-7 and 43-14 last season...Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson begins serving a three- game NFL suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy... Recently acquired wide receiver Patrick Crayton (ex-Cowboys) expected to make his Chargers debut...San Diego left tackle Marcus McNeill remains away from the team due to a contract dispute and will not play Monday.

Fast Fact: With a win on Monday, the Chargers will own their first four-game winning streak in Kansas City since 1974-77.

Prediction: Breaking out new offensive and defensive schemes against the four- time division champ is not a recipe for success. Chargers 27, Chiefs 15.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

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