Robert Morris enters this tilt playing its best ball of the season, as the
club has won its last nine games to move to 16-8 overall and 11-1 in league
action. The Colonials are fresh off Saturday's 75-63 triumph over St. Francis
(PA), and the hope tonight is that the club can improve a 6-5 road record.
Robert Morris has played only one other Big East Conference opponent this
season, as the club was crushed in the opener by Syracuse, 100-60.
Pittsburgh carried a two-game skid into Saturday's clash with Seton Hall, and
the Panthers had lost four of their last five entering that showdown.
Fortunately, they knocked off the Pirates by an 83-58 final to move to 17-6
overall and 7-4 in conference. There is reason for confidence tonight, as they
are 12-1 at home thus far.
The Panthers beat up on the Colonials last season by a 92-72 final and have
won all 27 of all-time meetings with Robert Morris. Furthermore, Pitt is 65-0
versus Northeast Conference members.
Through 24 games, Robert Morris is scoring 69.7 ppg while allowing 68.1 ppg to
opponents. Obviously, a differential of +1.6 ppg is surprisingly low for a
team that has won twice as many games as it has lost, but lopsided non-
conference losses like the one to Syracuse help explain the numbers. Karon
Abraham is the only double-digit scorer in the fold for the Colonials, as he
is netting 12.9 ppg on the strength of his 45.9 percent shooting from three-
point range. In the recent triumph over St. Francis (PA), Abraham scored 14
points, while Velton Jones pitched in 13 points and five assists. As for
Dallas Green, he posted 12 points and eight boards for the Colonials, who shot
64.1 percent from the field while limiting their overmatched opponent to 31.3
percent shooting.
Gilbert Brown scored 23 points off the bench to lead Pittsburgh to the easy
victory over Seton hall two days ago. Jermaine Dixon netted 15 points, Brad
Wanamaker tallied 13 points and seven assists, while Gary McGhee finished with
12 points and 11 rebounds for the Panthers. They also got 11 points from
Ashton Gibbs, and the team shot 51.7 percent overall while holding the Pirates
to 35.7 percent efficiency. Pitt earned a 39-30 rebounding advantage and
finished with 20 assists against only nine turnovers. Gibbs continues to lead
Pitt in scoring with 16.3 ppg, and Wanamaker provides 12.3 ppg and 6.3 rpg.
Brown (11.3 ppg) and Dixon (10.1 ppg) round out the productive foursome for
the Panthers, who are limiting opponents to 60.6 ppg on 39.4 percent shooting
from the field. The team is mediocre offensively in regard to output, as it is
generating 67.4 ppg.
Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.